What a crazy bear market this has been! While the BTC/crypto market has suffered lengthy bear markets before, never have we seen so many calamitous events in one single bear market.
In the first BTC bear market back in 2013/2014, MtGox (the largest exchange at the time), halted withdrawals and filed for bankruptcy. This was a disaster for the crypto market but it was only one single event.
In the second BTC bear market in 2017/2018, China banned all cryptocurrency trading. [1]
During the current bear market, there hasn’t been just one calamitous event, but there have already been many! These are the 4 most disastrous events that have happened during this bear market
- The Luna/UST crash [2]
- Three Arrows Capital went bust [3]
- Celsius filed for bankruptcy [4]
- FTX filed for bankruptcy [5]
85% Drawdown or More to Come?!
During the previous two bear markets, BTC suffered an 85% price decline before bottoming out. During this bear market, BTC has crashed from $69,000 to, at the time of writing, $15,500, which is a decline of only 77%. So where would an 85% crash in line with the previous two bear markets bring BTC to? An 85% decline for BTC would bring the price down to the $10,000 region.
Worst Case Scenario
Some excellent technical analysts like Gareth Solloway (https://twitter.com/GarethSoloway) and Jesse Olson (https://twitter.com/JesseOlson) are comparing this global economic crash to the Dot-com bust of 2000 and the housing market crash of 2008. If that is the case, then an 85% drawdown for BTC likely won’t be the bottom as equity markets such as the S&P500 and the Dow Jones Index will need to fall much lower. Further declines in equity markets will most likely cause BTC to also fall lower as both equities and crypto are risk-on markets.
Some stocks such as Alibaba have already fallen below their March 2020 covid lows. Could BTC be about to fall to its March 2020 low of just under $4000? If that were to happen then BTC would have crashed almost 95%!
Possible Scenario
There is a very important trendline on the linear BTC chart which dates back to 2016, touches the 2018 bear market lows, and also touches the March 2020 covid crash low. If BTC were to find support on this trendline by the middle of 2023 then BTC would bottom out around $9000. A break of $10k support would really panic a lot of investors and force them to capitulate.
Duration of BTC Bear Markets and the 4-year Halving Cycle
As @IllusiveTrades [6] points out on Twitter, in terms of historical duration, BTC is approaching the end of its bear market cycle. Will this time be different?
We can also track the 4-year BTC halving cycle to find a possible bottom. As @HalvingTracker [7] point out, BTC is approaching a cycle bottom according to past cycles.
What are your thoughts on a possible bottom price prediction for BTC? Leave your price predictions below to let us know.
Written by JayXBT
